Welcome to the landing page for the TDRD’s Elo model for the NFL. Unlike past NFL models I’ve written about, this version of the NFL model focuses purely on team ratings.
Here’s how each team got its ratings:
All 32 teams were given a base rating of 1505
Each team’s history begins in 20001
At the end of every season, each team’s rating is slightly regressed to the mean
The model uses a K rating of 20, accounting for the margin of victory
Home-field advantage is 75 points for all 30 stadiums
So, who’s going to win the Super Bowl?
I love the enthusiasm; the season is underway, and we have already seen the Eagles knock off the Cowboys at home while the Chiefs struggled with the Chargers.
I plan on updating the model after every night there’s a game, so the projections you’re seeing should be pretty current.
However, my only warning is that the team ratings the model uses for its simulations aren’t “hot”, meaning whatever rating the Chiefs and the Lions have after the most recent game is the rating they’ll carry through to the end of the simulation.
But I know what you came here for…
Here are ZeLO’s top-five teams most likely to make it to the Super Bowl:
Buffalo Bills (17.8%)
Philadelphia Eagles (17.2%)
Baltimore Ravens (8.4%)
Los Angeles Chargers (6.8%)
and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.2%)
Despite the potential for tweaks, I’m actually quite happy with the model’s current outputs; it has the same eight division winners as ESPN’s FPI Model, although each team’s chances do vary, with ZeLO awarding a higher chance (by a considerable margin).
The lone exception here is the Texans, who were founded in 2002