NCAAF Elo Model
Welcome to the landing page for the TDRD’s Elo model for College Football.
Welcome to the landing page for the TDRD’s Elo model for College Football. The TDRD’s CFB Model functions very similarly to the current NFL model, with a few exceptions…
Each team’s history begins in 1978, even if that means they were in the FCS
At the end of every season, each team’s rating is regressed to a conference mean
The model uses a K rating of 30, accounting for the margin of victory
Home-field advantage is calibrated for each individual team’s historical success and is regressed to a conference mean
The Elo formula uses a divisor of 300, not 400, for more confident picks
Team ratings are ‘hot’, meaning ratings change inside the simulation based on performance
Model Updates
September 28, 2025
Added a margin of victory cap to reduce wins of 35+ to limit how many points teams gain in blowout wins
Added an overall team ratings cap (2000) to base ratings to control ratings inflation
So, who’s going to win the College Football Playoff?
I’d be lying if I said I love the model’s picks. Oregon feels like much too heavy of a favorite, while teams like Indiana, which had various levels of success last season, feel like a very unlikely top team.
That being said, no model is perfect, and this season has the potential to be a more chaotic one. So, given the lack of a true heavy favorite, I’m not too surprised ZeLO is straying from the consensus.
Here are ZeLO’s top-five teams most likely to win the National Championship:
Oregon (25.9%)
Ohio State (22.7%)
Ole Miss (9.6%)
Georgia (8.1%)
Indiana (5.9%)