Breaking Down the First Round of the College Football Playoff
On Sunday, we finally got the first 12-team playoff bracket. Who makes it out of the first round?
It was a controversial Sunday. The College Football Playoff Committee left out a three-loss Alabama team, opting instead to include the now 11-2 Mustangs, who lost the ACC Championship on a 55-yard field goal as time expired.
It got Clemson into the field, and since SMU was ranked ahead of Alabama, the committee made the hard decision of leaving one of college football’s premier brands out of the expanded CFP.
It was also the right one.
I think the correct decision was made for a committee that was in a no-win position.
Alabama was ranked behind SMU in the penultimate poll. The committee said they would not punish teams for losing their conference championship game.
Had SMU been blown out, I would respect the decision to move Alabama up and over the Mustangs. And that was the way things were trending for a while.
However, SMU made a comeback and put the committee in a bind.
The easy choice would have been putting Alabama in 11th to face Penn State on the road. People would be upset, but the ratings would back it up. I’d watch that game. You’d watch that game. America would watch that game.
But we have SMU instead of Alabama, and I applaud the committee for it. They did what they said they would instead of making a move that would likely have resulted in a better TV product.
And make no mistake about it: the CFP is a for television product.
But thanks to the committee, we have the following bracket, which includes SMU at 11th.
The automatic byes for conference champions did result in some weird, unintended consequences. Penn State, who lost the Big Ten Championship to Oregon, has an easier path to the semi-finals than the Ducks.
There’s something to be said for removing the automatic byes for conference champions instead of just making them automatic bids. Then, you can reward the top four ranked teams with byes. It would look something like this:
It feels a little bit more fair to the top seed, Oregon.
Instead of facing Ohio State and Tennessee in the first round, the Ducks would face Boise State or Indiana. Penn State would face Clemson or Notre Dame.
But that’s a conversation for the offseason.
The first playoff game will be played in 11 days, when Indiana travels to South Bend to take on Notre Dame on December 20th. Although 11 days seems like a long time, it really isn’t.
It’s time to break down the first round of the CFP.
Clemson at Texas
After losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Texas went from having a bye to likely hosting one of the conference champions. Once the Tigers upset SMU, that conference champion went from Arizona State to Clemson.
That’s a pretty significant downgrade.
But it’s not as bad as it could be.
Clemson had a 7-3 record against Power 5 teams in the regular season. However, the Tigers went 0-2 against SEC teams and 3-3 against teams with a .500 record or better.
It’s not exactly the Clemson of yesteryear, so while it’s not playing Arizona State or Boise State, it’s not the worst possible draw.
Except for maybe Tennessee, Texas might have been the worst realistic draw for Clemson. The Longhorns have a good, stingy defense that won’t allow many points and a defensive line that can get after Cade Klubnik.
When Cade faced a high-powered SEC defensive line, he combined for 42 of 65, 422 yards, and two interceptions. It’s not an awful stat line, but that will not be good enough to beat Texas.
Clemson’s rushing offense, which is rather good, will be limited by Phil Mafah’s injury, which occurred ahead of the ACC Championship game. But Texas has the sixth-best rushing defense in all of college football, according to ZeLO.
Whether it is a good rushing attack or not, Clemson will be limited offensively. If Texas dares Cade Klubnik to beat them with his arm, I don’t think he is up to the task.
ZeLO has Texas advancing to face Arizona State (66.2%), which sets them up perfectly to make the semi-finals.
SMU at Penn State
Much like Texas, SMU’s loss in its conference championship game damaged its CFP chances.
SMU went from likely finishing as the third or fourth seed and receiving an automatic bid to traveling on the road to take on Penn State.
If Texas was significantly downgraded, SMU’s CFP odds would be severely diminished.
SMU has a lot of speed and talent on both sides of the ball, which can get you a lot. It might not be enough to get them past Penn State.
The Nittany Lion’s defense ranks 7th overall in ZeLO’s defensive power rankings. The Mustangs haven’t played many strong defenses like that this season.
Based on power rankings, SMU's best defense was BYU (16th), and the Mustangs scored 15 points.
It was early in the season, but we might see an encore performance of sorts in the cold of Beaver Stadium against the Nittany Lion’s defense.
SMU had a fantastic first year in the ACC. The team went 11-1, made the title game, and then the CFP. That run might come to an end.
Penn State advances to face Boise State (60.3%).
Indiana at Notre Dame
After speculating all season about which SEC school would have to make the trek up north to Notre Dame Stadium to play in what would surely be a frigid, frozen tundra, that home-field advantage has been somewhat mitigated.
Memorial Stadium is just 199 miles from South Bend, so any climate advantage Notre Dame could have had has largely been mitigated.
This match-up promises to be exciting because it is strength on strength.
According to ZeLO, Notre Dame has the fifth-best rushing attack in college football. Jeremiyah Love is an incredible athlete capable of jaw-dropping plays, usually in the form of hurdles.
Jadarian Price is an excellent counterpunch, and Aneyas Williams is an exceptional young pass-blocker.
But Indiana can match that strength. The Hoosiers have the second-best rushing defense in the country, behind only Ole Miss.
Part of me knows that Indiana’s stats are inflated because of strength of schedule. When the Hoosiers played Ohio State, they held the Buckeyes to 4.0 yards per rush, while Ohio State averaged 5.0 yards per rush all season.
If you apply that defensive performance to Notre Dame, the Irish would go from 6.3 yards per carry to 5.04, which is more than enough to beat the Hoosiers.
Against Ohio State, the Hoosiers felt the bright lights on their face and were forced to look away. They allowed a punt return touchdown, a fumble, and a botched snap during a punt.
So, while Indiana lost, the Hoosiers know what the spotlight feels on their face now. I don’t think the moment will feel too big this time. If there are any weird turnovers, they’re more likely to be weather-related.
But knowing what the spotlight feels like doesn't mean the Hoosiers can offer a better performance. Ohio State’s defense ranks second in ZeLO’s rankings. The only team better than them is Notre Dame.
I think Notre Dame’s defense shuts down the Hoosiers (55.7%) and heads to the Sugar Bowl to take on Georgia.
Tennessee at Ohio State
If I were to pick this game myself, I would pick Tennessee purely on vibes. But it wouldn’t be based on Tennessee’s vibes but on Ohio State’s.
The Buckeyes were 19.5-point favorites against the Wolverines. A chance to go to the Big Ten Championship beat Oregon, and maybe, just maybe, claim the No. 1 overall seed was on the line.
The Buckeyes just had to beat a 6-5 football team.
And they couldn’t.
I think the Buckeyes' loss could have been softened if they had played another game, but instead, they remained idle and watched as Penn State, a team they beat, went to the Big Ten title game instead.
It’s been 1,836 days since Ohio State beat Michigan, and I think, on some level, that fact has owned the Buckeyes and Ryan Day.
Maybe I’m wrong, and Ohio State can mentally regroup and bounce back. They will have had plenty of time to get it right.
But I don’t think they can. Tennessee has a better defense than Michigan’s, and a quarterback in Nico Iamaleava is a legitimate threat to move the ball.
However, Tennessee has had its offensive struggles and is not without ugly losses (see Arkansas). And the Ohio State defense is not why the Buckeyes lost its game to the Wolverines.
It will surely be low-scoring and close, but ZeLO has Ohio State (59%) advancing to the next round, though how a team will mentally rebound is not something ZeLO takes into consideration,
And just like that, the first round is done. Let’s see what the bracket looks like.
Not all four games are instant-classics, but Ohio State/Oregon and Notre Dame/Georgia would be juggernauts. Texas/Arizona State and Penn State/Boise State aren’t elite games, but they should be fun to watch.
Hopefully, sometime this week, I’ll wrap up the quarterfinals (and maybe the whole tournament in one article), but more information is needed. For example, it would be great to know Carson Beck’s status, as it could determine who comes from the bottom half of the bracket.
But until then, thanks for reading.