ACC Win Totals: Part 2
After examining the first half of the ACC, I looked at the last eight teams in the conference and picked the over and under for each team's projected win total
We are just 20 days from the beginning of the college football season when Florida State will play Georgia Tech in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic. The season is almost here.
Last time, I wrote about the first half of the ACC. Here’s a quick recap:
Boston College: Under (5.0)
California: Under (6.0)
Clemson: Under (9.5)
Duke: Under (5.5)
Florida State: Over (9.5)
Georgia Tech: Under (5.0)
Louisville: Over (8.5)
Miami: Over (9.0)
NC State: Over (8.5
For reference, I’m comparing DraftKings win totals to ZeLO, which is my college football model’s projections.
As a disclaimer, I’m not giving advice or making betting picks. This is an exercise to see how teams stack up in each conference and how the betting public sees these teams versus how I see them.
With that in mind, let’s begin.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels sit at 7.5 wins, with the over set to -115 and the under at -105. The obvious starting point is the departure of Drake Maye. North Carolina had one of the best QBs in college football for two years and…went 17-10.
This year, Maye will be under center in the NFL, and North Carolina has to maneuver a relatively manageable schedule. The non-con of Minnesota, Charlotte, NC Central, and JMU isn’t a murderer row, but I could also see UNC making it to conference play 2-2.
In all likelihood, though, UNC will advance to Duke on September 28 with a 3-1 record (though I don’t feel great about that!). Florida State and North Carolina State feel like losses. Duke is a toss-up game.
So, if a road trip to Wallace Wade results in a Tar Heel loss, and they have the more obvious losses to FSU and NC State, they still have an extra loss in the bank for the non-conference slate.
I don’t feel great about it, but I’ll take the over.
Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh Panthers' win total is 5.5, with the over at +100 (!) and the under at -120.
I have a hard time getting to six wins, which is likely why the over is a decent underdog. Getting to six wins feels really hard. So, instead, let's get to seven losses.
Going backward on the schedule: Louisville (A), Clemson, SMU (A), Syracuse, North Carolina (A). That’s five more toss-up games, though Louisville, Clemson, and SMU are more like leans right now.
West Virginia and Cincinnati are also projected losses which gets Pitt to seven. Kent State and Youngstown State are locked wins. And while Cal, Virginia, and Boston College are tipped toward Pitt, I highly doubt they will win all three.
I’ll take the under.
SMU
SMU is projected to finish with 8.0 wins. The over is -135, and the under is +115.
I had a hard time with this prediction. ZeLO had the Mustangs as a 10-2 caliber team, though I needed to adjust their rating to reflect that they jumped up to the ACC from the AAC.
Historically, teams that have made jumps to the Power 5 level tend to struggle (see Cincinnati, BYU, and Houston), so I downgraded SMU in my power rankings to reflect that.
SMU dropped a whole win (not a small thing!), but they should still clear their total. I think they’ll lose to Florida State and Louisville, and I could see a loss to TCU. But I would expect SMU to beat BYU, Stanford, Pitt, Boston College, and California.
8-4 is a possible outcome, but the ACC is overall weaker at the bottom of the conference than the Big 12 was last season, and SMU has a favorable schedule.
Give me the over.
Stanford
Stanford has a low win total of 3.5, an over of -160, and an under of +135. I think I will take the under, which I didn’t expect coming into this series.
Stanford’s schedule isn’t brutal; they play Cal Poly, Wake Forest, Cal, and San Jose State.
But that feels like the end of the winnable games. Clemson, Notre Dame, SMU, NC State, and Louisville are all games out of Stanford's league. Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and TCU are in the next tier. But I don’t see Stanford getting more than one upset win out of those games.
ZeLO only has Stanford favored to win over Cal Poly. That’s it. Stanford can probably get to three wins, but I like the under.
Syracuse
A few weeks ago, a friend of mine who likes Syracuse asked me what I thought of the team’s chances this season, and I figured I’d have to say that Syracuse might be lucky enough to make a bowl.
I checked ZeLO only to see Syracuse snuck into the 8+ wins territory, peaking around 8.5. In a panic, I checked Draftkings to ensure I wasn’t dramatically overvaluing the Orange. And the Orange sat at seven wins.
The over is at -120, and the under is at +100, which surprised me again because it meant that more money is coming in on the over, which was not what I expected.
But the Orange have the 82nd-most difficult strength of schedule and, on paper, should be able to get above seven wins.
NC State and Miami are projected to be losses. Virginia Tech and Pitt are slight toss-up wins. But in the worst-case scenario, that leaves an extra loss on the table for a push. So, I’ll take the over.
Virginia
The Cavaliers have a win total of 4.5, with the over at +100 and the under at -120.
I like the under here. Richmond is a win. Wake, Coastal, and Boston College might be wins. Pitt could be a win.
Maryland (the remainder of the non-con) isn’t a good game. Louisville, Clemson, UNC, Notre Dame, SMU, and Virginia Tech are likely losses.
So I think I’ll take the under, partly for consistency (I’ve counted UVA as a win for other teams) and partly because ZeLO doesn’t have the Cavaliers getting past four wins the vast majority of the time.
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is projected to win around 8.5 games. The over is +105, and the under is -125.
I wasn’t expecting such a high win total for the Hokies, but it makes sense why. Tech’s toughest games are Clemson and Miami. Their non-conference opponents are Vanderbilt, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Rutgers, though Vanderbilt is a road game.
Syracuse could be a tricky game, but Stanford, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Duke, and Virginia are games I expect Tech to win.
I’ll take the over, though not all that confidently.
Wake Forest
Last but not least, Wake Forest has a win total of 4.5, an over of -160, and an under of +135.
For consistency, I am forced to take Wake’s under. They have winnable games against NC A&T, Louisiana, UConn, and Stanford.
The losses are likely Ole Miss, NC State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, and Duke. Essentially, this bet will come down to Virginia and California.
If Wake can win either of those, they have a good chance at hitting the over. But for the sake of consistency, I’m taking the under. I’ve counted Wake as a win for too many other teams.
With that, the ACC is done. My next two articles will focus on the Big Ten and then the SEC before concluding the Power 4 with the Big 12. I’ll touch on some of the better Group of 5 teams if I still have time.
But until then, thanks for reading.